NL Central: A Look At The First Third of The Season and Lusk Projections

What Is A Lusk Projection

A Lusk Projection is a simple algorithm to project how a baseball team will perform in the future based solely on past wins and losses. While a normal projection only uses the winning percentage to calculate what the final record for a team will be, a Lusk Projection (or LP) gives a range from a worst (or best in some instances) case scenario to the most likely scenario.

The LP algorithm does this by taking into account that baseball records, being a zero sum game, tends to trend towards a .500 winning percentage. Also, the range (LR) with this method takes into account a team's absolutely worst 10 game stretch (or longer if there was a lengthy losing streak) for a team with a winning record and vice versa for a team with a losing record.

It should be noted that this projection will likely only have value in the middle two thirds of a season. Before a team completes the 54 game mark, the sample size is too low and after the 108 game mark, there has been a large enough of a sample size to indicate a straight projection would give you more accurate results. An LP at the 81 game mark would likely have the most value.

Further note that this algorithm does not take into account such things as how a bullpen is used, free agent acquisitions etc., nor is it useful to predict epic collapses (example the 2014 Brewers). Also, this algorithm should not be used for handicapping or sports gambling purposes. The accuracy of such an algorithm has not been tested yet and therefore may be completely inaccurate.

The Lusk Projection Algorithm

Inputs:

1. Current team record


2. Best 10 game stretch. In the case of a winning streak at 10 games or above, count the whole streak plus the two losses that occurred immediately before and after the streak. For instance, a 12 game winning streak would result in a stretch of 12-2. Assume a loss before the streak if the streak begins at the very beginning of the season.


3. Worst 10 game stretch. In the case of a losing streak at 10 games or above, count the whole streak plus the two wins that occurred immediately before and after the streak. For instance, a 12 game losing streak would result in a stretch of 2-12. Assume a win before the streak if the streak begins at the very beginning of the season.

Process and Outputs

Projected wins: [Wins/(Wins+Losses)]×Total games in a season

Projected wins if a team finishes at .500: Wins+(Remaining Games/2)

Low: Wins + [(Games won during worst stretch/Games lost during worst stretch)×Remaining Games]

High: Wins+[(Games won during best stretch/Games lost during worst stretch)×Remaining Games]

Lusk Projection (LP): (Projected Wins+Projected At .500)/2

Lusk Combined Projection for a team with a winning record (LCP): (Projected Wins+Projected at .500+Low)/3

Lusk Combined Projection for a team with a losing record (LCP): (Projected Wins+Projected at .500+High)/3

Range: |Projected-Low| for a team with a winning record or |Projected-High| for a team with a losing record.

Lusk Range (LR): |LP-LCP|

A look at the NL Central using Lusk Projections after 54 games

Chicago Cubs

Record: 39-15

Worst 10 game stretch: 4-6

Projected: 117-45

Projection at .500: 93-69

Low (4-6): 82-80

Range: 35 games

Lusk Projection: 105-57

Lusk Combined: 97-65

Lusk Range: 8 Games

The Cubs have been winning games at an historic pace. However, this high level of play is almost impossible to maintain. However, they have been so good, it is most likely they will finish with at least the same record they had last year which will probably be the best record in all of baseball.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Record: 29-25

Worst 10 game stretch: 3-10

Projected: 87-75

Projected at .500: 83-79

Projected Low: 61-101

Range: 26 games 

Lusk Projection: 85-77

Lusk Combined: 77-85

Lusk Range: 8

I predict the Pirates are going to beat their current projections and end the season around the 90-95 win mark. Also, more than likely they will be buying during free agency (at least on the cheap) and that should help them. However, bad news for Bucs fans, they will probably play in yet another Wild Card game.

Saint Louis Cardinals

Record: 28-26

Worst 10 game stretch: 4-6

Projected: 84-78

Projected at .500: 82-80

Projected Low: 71-91

Range: 13 games

Lusk Projection: 83-79

Lusk Combined: 79-83

Lusk Range: 4 games

Every sign points to the Cardinals being a .500 team this year. So naturally, being a paranoid Cubs fan, I expect them to at least challenge for the second wild card if not make a run for the Division title outright. We'll know more by the trade deadline whether or not they are buying, selling or just staying out of the market.

Milwaukee Brewers 

Record: 25-29

Best Stretch: 7-3

Projected: 75-87

Projected at .500: 79-83

Projected High: 100-62

Range: 25 games

Lusk Projection: 77-85

Lusk Combined: 84-78

Lusk Range: 7 games

The Brewers are probably a sub .500 team but they have a chance of going over .500 thanks to the extreme adherence to fundamentals that Manager Craig Counsel teaches. Even though you can expect Lucroy's to be gone (they'll be stuck with Braun), Counsel looks like he is getting the team to start buying in. However, this team simply doesn't have the fire power to be any serious threat except as a spoiler down the road.

Cincinnati Reds

Record: 19-35

Best stretch: 5-5

Projected: 57-105

Projected at .500: 76-86

Projected High: 76-86

Range: 19 games

Lusk Value: 66-96

Lusk Combined: 69-93

Lusk Range: 3

After their first 54 games, the Reds are on a 6-4 stretch which would have changed the projections a bit. However, I view this current stretch as an aberration and their record and projections at 54 games more indicative of whom they really are. While the Twins and the Braves will be duking it out to see who is the worst of the worst, the Reds should be trailing right behind them for that dubious distinction.

In short: The Reds should equal free wins for any ball club that faces them.

I will be making new posts with new projections after the 81 and 108 game marks. It should be interesting to see if this system has any utility and/or accuracy.

The Way We Were vs The Way We Are

The Cubs baseball season is only five days old and despite an extremely small sample size, there is definitely a reason for Cubs fans to be optimistic for this year. (Which I am sure most of you have noticed.) Here's a comparison of how the Cubs are doing after the first five games of 2015 as compared to the first five games of 2014:

Last year, the Cubs only scored 8 points through the first 5 games. That's an average of 1.6 runs per game.

This year, through five games, the Cubs have scored 18 runs which is an average of 3.6 runs per game. That's a 2 run per game improvement from last year and 10 more runs scored in a similar stretch.

Last year, the Cubs allowed 2.4 runs per game in their first five or a total of 12 runs.

This year, the Cubs have allowed 18 runs through five games or 3.6 runs per game. This is an increase of 1.2 runs a game or six more runs. (I am chalking this up to a poor first outing by Lester and having to play the Rockies in Colorado.)

Last year, the difference between avg runs scored and avg runs allowed was -.8

This year, the difference between avg runs scored and avg runs allowed is 0. This is an improvement of .8 runs per game

Most importantly, last year at this time the Cubs were 1-4 and sitting in the basement. This year, the Cubs are 3-2 tied for second place with a chance to take sole possession of first place after tonight. (Keep on smiling. The Cardinals are facing the Brewers the next three games which could be a three game sweep for the dirty birds.)

Like I said, it is an extremely small sample size. However, it sure is nice to start the season near the top of the division rather than already facing an uphill struggle.

Blow Cubs Blow...

Alternate lyrics to Go Cubs Go... Great for when the Cubs lose and you still want to sing. Without further ado, I give you: Blow Cubs Blow

Baseball season’s underway

Well you better get ready for another losing day

Hey, Chicago, what do you say?

The Cubs are gonna blow today.

They’re singing … Blow, Cubs, blow, blow, Cubs, blow

Hey, Chicago, what do you say?

The Cubs are gonna blow today

Blow, Cubs, blow Blow, Cubs, blow

Hey, Chicago, what do you say?

The Cubs are gonna blow today.

They got no pitching, they commit all E's

They're the worst in the National League

I can't believe Ricketts said the Cubs are real

He just wants your cash at Wrigley Field.

We’re singing now …Blow, Cubs, blow Blow, Cubs, blow

Hey, Chicago, what do you say?

The Cubs are gonna blow today

Blow, Cubs, blow Blow, Cubs, blow

Hey, Chicago, what do you say?

The Cubs are gonna blow today.

Sack-punching time is here again

You can watch the crap on WGN

So drown your sorrow with twelve beer cans

Chicago Cubs got the most tortured fans.

You’re singing now … Blow, Cubs, blow Blow, Cubs, blow

Hey, Chicago, what do you say?

The Cubs are gonna blow today

Blow, Cubs, blow Blow, Cubs, blow

Hey, Chicago, what do you say?

The Cubs are gonna blow today.

Cheers and Jeers for 6-29-11

Cheers:

2.5 for Ryan Dempster's Performance. That's what an Ace is supposed to do.

2.0 for Kosuke Fukadome's diving catch.

2.0 for Aramis Ramiez's walk-off hit.

1.0 for Blake (The Twitt) DeWitt's RBI single.

0.5 for Tony Campana being the winning run.

Pretty well played game today, however there were a few jeers that did not get over-looked.

Blake the Twitt's TOOTBLAN was just sad. He had no business heading to third with first open and the ball hit to the left side of the infield. Also, by staying put, we would have at least seen Fukodome in that inning instead of ending with Ryan Dempster.

Tony Campana's diving muff at the top of the ninth. Had he stopped the ball, Dempster might have been able to finish the game.

Carlos Marmol's blown save. Once again Campana factors in. Had the ball been thrown to the catcher, Marmol might have got the save with Dempster getting a well deserved win. Instead, Dempster gets a no decision, Marmol gets the win DESPITE the blown save.

All in all it was a good win against the defending World Champions. Enjoy it while you can, this might not happen again this season.

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Now THAT'S A Quality Start! (Game Final 6-29-11)

For almost the entire first half of the season we Cubs fans were asking... Well... many questions. However, the question we've been asking since midway through the first game was: "Where the hell is our ace?!?!" Today, we had one.

Ryan Dempster, unquestioningly, had the best damn outing of all the damn pitchers in the entire damn pitching staff tonight. The proof:

Dempster allowed only three hits.
Dempster allowed no walks.
Dempster had only 1 ER in 8+ innings of work
Dempster retired 20 batters in row

You have to admit, such a performance is a welcome relief as compared to the two starters yesterday. (One of which is now happily, for us, unemployed.) The only bad thing about the game was Carlos Marmol blowing the save which cost Dempster a well deserved win.

In a season that started out bad and quickly went to shit, there are not a lot of reasons to celebrate. For tonight (and probably tonight only) I celebrate the coming of our Ace.

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Doug Davis Dropped

Remember back in March when we Cubs fans were excited for the upcoming 2011 season? What was the one thing that was being touted as being our one, sure-fire saving grace?

If you said: "The pitching staff" give yourself a cigar for your good memory.

Fast forward to April: After a shaky start from the first three starters, we were delighted at the performance of Randy Wells. We were enjoying a decent start from Andrew Cashner... then it hit. Cashner left the game early from a shoulder strain and Wells was reported to have a shoulder strain. Both were going to the DL. So far only Wells has returned.

So there we were, 40% of our rotation on the shelf. Carlos Silva, who had both a bad second half of 2010 and a piss-poor spring, left in a huff rather than taking an assignment. Panick was setting in and Jim Hendy's legendary buffet table was in danger of being removed from him. The pitching staff needed help and in a hurry.

So what did Hendry do to help? Why he got Doug Davis.

Yes, Doug Davis. Doug Davis, who's last stint with the Milwaukee Brewers garnered him a 1-4 record and a 7.51 ERA. Oh yes, he spent the majority of the season on the Brewer's shelf. The Brewers had the good sense to send him packing after 2010.

To no one's surprise, Doug Davis comes here to Wrigley and totally stinks up the field. His one win (and incidentally good performance) came against the New York Yankees. That probably saved his job as we all knew that a Davis start equals a Cubs loss.

The straw that broke the whale's (Hendry's) back was yesterday when he made the San Francisco Giants look like the infamous "Murders Row" of Yankees legend. Davis raised his ERA from 5.01 to 6.50 in just that game. He allowed 10 runs before manager Mike Quade yanked him because the suicide rate was sky-rocketing on the North Side.

Look, I'm not expecting to get Nolan Ryan from free agency in April. However, there had to be someone who's career was heading down the toilet faster than last night's burritos. Hell's Bells, I'd take that Cirque Soleil guy over Davis. Yes, Davis is just that bad and doesn't deserve to be on a Major League team.

Today, Hendry decided that no help is better than bad help. Too bad he didn't realize that back in April.

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