What Is A Lusk Projection
A Lusk Projection is a simple algorithm to project how a baseball team will perform in the future based solely on past wins and losses. While a normal projection only uses the winning percentage to calculate what the final record for a team will be, a Lusk Projection (or LP) gives a range from a worst (or best in some instances) case scenario to the most likely scenario.
The LP algorithm does this by taking into account that baseball records, being a zero sum game, tends to trend towards a .500 winning percentage. Also, the range (LR) with this method takes into account a team's absolutely worst 10 game stretch (or longer if there was a lengthy losing streak) for a team with a winning record and vice versa for a team with a losing record.
It should be noted that this projection will likely only have value in the middle two thirds of a season. Before a team completes the 54 game mark, the sample size is too low and after the 108 game mark, there has been a large enough of a sample size to indicate a straight projection would give you more accurate results. An LP at the 81 game mark would likely have the most value.
Further note that this algorithm does not take into account such things as how a bullpen is used, free agent acquisitions etc., nor is it useful to predict epic collapses (example the 2014 Brewers). Also, this algorithm should not be used for handicapping or sports gambling purposes. The accuracy of such an algorithm has not been tested yet and therefore may be completely inaccurate.
The Lusk Projection Algorithm
Inputs:
- Current team record
- Best 10 game stretch. In the case of a winning streak at 10 games or above, count the whole streak plus the two losses that occurred immediately before and after the streak. For instance, a 12 game winning streak would result in a stretch of 12-2. Assume a loss before the streak if the streak begins at the very beginning of the season.
- Worst 10 game stretch. In the case of a losing streak at 10 games or above, count the whole streak plus the two wins that occurred immediately before and after the streak. For instance, a 12 game losing streak would result in a stretch of 2-12. Assume a win before the streak if the streak begins at the very beginning of the season.
Process and Outputs
Projected wins: [Wins/(Wins+Losses)]×Total games in a season
Projected wins if a team finishes at .500: Wins+(Remaining Games/2)
Low: Wins + [(Games won during worst stretch/Games lost during worst stretch)×Remaining Games]
High: Wins+[(Games won during best stretch/Games lost during worst stretch)×Remaining Games]
Lusk Projection (LP): (Projected Wins+Projected At .500)/2
Lusk Combined Projection for a team with a winning record (LCP): (Projected Wins+Projected at .500+Low)/3
Lusk Combined Projection for a team with a losing record (LCP): (Projected Wins+Projected at .500+High)/3
Range: |Projected-Low| for a team with a winning record or |Projected-High| for a team with a losing record.
Lusk Range (LR): |LP-LCP|
A look at the NL Central using Lusk Projections after 54 games
Chicago Cubs
Record: 39-15
Worst 10 game stretch: 4-6
Projected: 117-45
Projection at .500: 93-69
Low (4-6): 82-80
Range: 35 games
Lusk Projection: 105-57
Lusk Combined: 97-65
Lusk Range: 8 Games
The Cubs have been winning games at an historic pace. However, this high level of play is almost impossible to maintain. However, they have been so good, it is most likely they will finish with at least the same record they had last year which will probably be the best record in all of baseball.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Record: 29-25
Worst 10 game stretch: 3-10
Projected: 87-75
Projected at .500: 83-79
Projected Low: 61-101
Range: 26 games
Lusk Projection: 85-77
Lusk Combined: 77-85
Lusk Range: 8
I predict the Pirates are going to beat their current projections and end the season around the 90-95 win mark. Also, more than likely they will be buying during free agency (at least on the cheap) and that should help them. However, bad news for Bucs fans, they will probably play in yet another Wild Card game.
Saint Louis Cardinals
Record: 28-26
Worst 10 game stretch: 4-6
Projected: 84-78
Projected at .500: 82-80
Projected Low: 71-91
Range: 13 games
Lusk Projection: 83-79
Lusk Combined: 79-83
Lusk Range: 4 games
Every sign points to the Cardinals being a .500 team this year. So naturally, being a paranoid Cubs fan, I expect them to at least challenge for the second wild card if not make a run for the Division title outright. We'll know more by the trade deadline whether or not they are buying, selling or just staying out of the market.
Milwaukee Brewers
Record: 25-29
Best Stretch: 7-3
Projected: 75-87
Projected at .500: 79-83
Projected High: 100-62
Range: 25 games
Lusk Projection: 77-85
Lusk Combined: 84-78
Lusk Range: 7 games
The Brewers are probably a sub .500 team but they have a chance of going over .500 thanks to the extreme adherence to fundamentals that Manager Craig Counsel teaches. Even though you can expect Lucroy's to be gone (they'll be stuck with Braun), Counsel looks like he is getting the team to start buying in. However, this team simply doesn't have the fire power to be any serious threat except as a spoiler down the road.
Cincinnati Reds
Record: 19-35
Best stretch: 5-5
Projected: 57-105
Projected at .500: 76-86
Projected High: 76-86
Range: 19 games
Lusk Value: 66-96
Lusk Combined: 69-93
Lusk Range: 3
After their first 54 games, the Reds are on a 6-4 stretch which would have changed the projections a bit. However, I view this current stretch as an aberration and their record and projections at 54 games more indicative of whom they really are. While the Twins and the Braves will be duking it out to see who is the worst of the worst, the Reds should be trailing right behind them for that dubious distinction.
In short: The Reds should equal free wins for any ball club that faces them.
I will be making new posts with new projections after the 81 and 108 game marks. It should be interesting to see if this system has any utility and/or accuracy.
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